Still, under those circumstances, if there’s a Trump victory: Expect more and higher tariffs, which could disrupt trade and be inflationary, and hurt “the consumer discretionary, industrials, and information technology sectors,” in the view of UBS, the financial services company. Mr. Trump would probably manage to lower taxes and increase the budget deficit, stimulating the economy but, again, goosing inflation — which could lead to higher interest rates. There is likely to be less regulation, with sectors like fossil-fuel energy and financial services benefiting.
If Mr. Biden is re-elected but Democrats don’t control Congress, the status quo continues. Expect greater regulation (though the Supreme Court on Friday limited the executive branch’s regulatory powers) and higher taxes for wealthy people and companies than under Mr. Trump, along with executive orders aiding…