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Goodbye to old refunds – “stimulus effect” of new IRS checks could shake up U.S. economy, JPMorgan says

In a few months, millions of Americans could receive a cash injection into their bank accounts. We are not talking about a round of government aid (the government’s budget has not even been approved yet, so how could they even approve aid?). Instead, this is an unexpected tax phenomenon that could function as a kind of unofficial stimulus check.

JPMorgan estimates that the average tax refund for 2025 could go up by about $557. If last year’s average refund was $3,186, that means taxpayers could receive a refund of $3,700. But, why? How can American taxpayers suddenly receive such a big refund?

Where Does This Law Come From?

The major tax reform, commonly known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA), has brought about many changes. Although this reform was passed in mid-2025, it included budget cuts that were retroactive to January 1, 2025. The Internal Revenue…

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