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The world can’t escape from a US economy that has lost its anchor

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Global stock markets have just enjoyed their strongest week since November as investors cast aside their recession and yen exchange rate concerns of early August. Very little of substance changed to generate the recovery or, indeed, the crash at the start of the month. Apart from thin summer markets, what this demonstrates is deep uncertainty over the global post-pandemic economy and the prospects ahead.

Across advanced and emerging economies, inflation has improved but remains a little too high, unemployment is generally low, growth rates are variable and public finances are stretched even before the costs of geopolitical tensions and demographic ageing are included. These are not the conditions for stability with a known anchor setting the resting point…

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