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Recession avoided, inflation down as economy defies dark expectations

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After two years of relentless pressure over everything from sky-high inflation to a looming recession, the head of the Federal Reserve was asked this month what he does for fun.

“For me, a big, big party — and I mean, this is really as fun as it gets — is a really good inflation report,” Jerome H. Powell said before a crowd at Spelman College. He flashed a smile and laughed.

For an official who typically sticks to a tight script, the quip was downright jubilant. But it also reflected a subtle mood shift from the central bank — and from a leader who feels finally freed to crack a joke in the first place, however restrained.

As 2023 winds to a close, Powell and his colleagues are far from declaring victory on inflation. They routinely caution that their actions could be thwarted by any number of threats, from war in the…

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