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Jump In Jobless Claims, Soft PPI Lift Fed Rate-Cut Odds; S&P 500 Rises

Initial jobless claims jumped to the highest level since last summer, while the core producer prices were unchanged, lifting the odds for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The S&P 500 dipped in Thursday morning stock market action.

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While new Fed projections on Wednesday signaled a likelihood of a single rate-cut this year, Wall Street took comfort in benign CPI data. Chair Jerome Powell said that a string of more data like the CPI could alter the Fed rate-cut picture, and benign PPI data provided a second serving of good news. On top of that, the first real sign of a softening of the labor market could lead to a more abrupt shift in Fed policy.

Jobless Claims

Initial claims for jobless benefits rose 13,000 to 242,000 in the week through June 8. That lifted the four-week average to 227,000 from 222,250.

Jobless claims haven’t been this high since August 2023. The…

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