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The fourth year of the U.S. economic expansion

The U.S. economy is well into the fourth year of an economic expansion that began in May 2020, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research’s (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee in Cambridge, Mass.

A year-and-a-half year ago, I noted in a Talk Business & Politics column that production, income and sales metrics showed economic growth, not the recession forecast by perma-bears and some partisan observers.

The issue is relevant to state fiscal policy because revenues tend to follow the cycle with a lag.

Why believe the U.S. economy remains in expansion? Four reasons. There is also one possibility for why the economy does not appear to be working for many of our fellow Americans.

First, inflation-adjusted or real gross domestic product, fueled by increases in consumer spending increased at an annual rate of 4.9% in 3Q-2023, according to the U.S. Bureau of…

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