Wouldn’t you know it, but the first three weeks of the year have brought more good fortune and more new highs as investors grow comfortable with the idea that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates and will soon be cutting them. I, however, see no evidence for why anything has to be cut despite what the all-knowing bond market yield curve and its accouterments like futures tied to the fed funds overnight bank lending rate are telling us. With Wednesday’s hot purchasing managers’ numbers that demonstrate the strength of both the service and manufacturing portions of the economy, it’s even more doubtful that we will get rate cuts soon. As the year begins, I am actually bullish about where things are with the U.S. economy because I think the Fed truly has a chance to crush inflation by staying tighter. That was my January Monthly Meeting message to Club members. After all,…
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