By Naomi Rovnick
LONDON (Reuters) – Investment banks and asset managers have wildly varying stock market and currency calls for 2024, reflecting deep division over whether the U.S. economy will enter a long-heralded recession and drag the world with it.
The lack of consensus among forecasters is a stark contrast to a year ago, when most predicted a U.S. recession and rapid rate cuts that failed to materialise. The world’s largest economy expanded by 5.2% in the third quarter of this year.
The divisions this year have produced a scattergram of projections for the U.S. interest rate path and how global assets that are influenced by the Federal Reserve’s actions will perform.
Market participants are therefore bracing for a bumpy start to the new year after a strong rally last month for both stocks and bonds based on a short-term consensus that inflation and interest rates are on a firm…
